Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Valuation
Rating: Slight Overpriced
12-Month Fair Value: $142 – $168 – $194
Confidence: HIGH
Post Q4 2025 earnings update. Record quarter: $10.3B revenue (+34% YoY, beat 6.5%), $1.53 non-GAAP EPS (+40%, beat 16%), Data Center $5.4B (+39%). FY2025: $34.6B revenue, $4.17 EPS, $5.5B FCF. MI350 fastest ramp in history; MI450/Helios high-volume Q3 2026; OpenAI 1 GW partnership. Stock crashed 17% on margin/guidance concerns, then rebounded. DCF $127 (WACC 10%, TG 3.5%), P/E $182 (28x), EV/Rev $165 (6x), EV/EBITDA $185 (22x). At $208 (32x FY26E P/E), still 28% above blended fair value $163. NT R/R 0.43:1, LT R/R 1.24:1. Wait for $160-170 entry.
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