Bitcoin (BTC) Valuation
Rating: Fairly Priced (Mid)
12-Month Fair Value: $57000 – $73000 – $89000
Confidence: LOW
Bitcoin at $71,602 is approximately fairly priced but with unfavorable R/R (0.61:1). The Iran war definitively proved BTC is NOT digital gold — crashed 13.5% on Day 1 while gold rallied, maintains 0.80 NQ correlation. In stagflation (GDP +0.7%, PCE +3.1%, real yields 1.89%), zero-yield risk assets face sustained headwinds. MVRV at 1.2 approaching accumulation zone but not there yet (sub-1.0 is the strong buy). Gold is the superior trade (2.50:1 R/R). AVOID new BTC positions; accumulate at $40-50K or on Fed pivot signal. Buy BTC when the Fed prints, not when the Fed holds.
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