Citigroup Inc. (C) Valuation
Rating: Fairly Priced
12-Month Fair Value: $98 – $128 – $155
Confidence: MEDIUM
Citigroup Q1 2026 confirmed Jane Fraser's turnaround: EPS $3.06 beat $2.63 consensus, revenue $24.63B beat $23.53B (+14% YoY), net income $5.8B (+42% YoY), Markets revenue crossed $7B (+19% YoY), Services +17%, Banking fees +12% (record Q1 M&A), efficiency improved to 58%, ROTCE 13.1% above the 11-12% medium-term target, $6.3B Q1 buyback. Book value +8% to $112.22, TBV +8% to $99.01. Stock +3.11% on the print. Bank-specific valuation (P/B 30%, DDM 25%, P/E 25%, ECF 20%) yields base FV $128 vs current $130.21 — effectively FAIRLY_PRICED. Thesis: the re-rating from historical 0.6-0.8x P/TBV trough is real but mostly captured; incremental upside requires sustained >13% ROTCE and efficiency <58%, which is where Citi's execution risk clusters.
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