Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Valuation
Rating: Slight Overpriced
12-Month Fair Value: $55 – $65 – $75
Confidence: MEDIUM
Cisco is executing a credible transformation — subscription at 51%, AI orders accelerating at $2.1B/quarter, record RPO of $43.4B. However, at ~$77, gross margin compression (67.5% → guided 65.5-66.5%) and competitive share loss to NVIDIA/Arista in AI datacenter create near-term headwinds. Trading in upper third of $60-$82 band with unfavorable near-term R/R (0.27:1).
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