The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Valuation
Rating: Slight Overpriced
12-Month Fair Value: $665 – $782 – $899
Confidence: MEDIUM
Goldman's structural improvements (consumer exit crystallized, 14.5-15% normalized ROE, alternatives growth) are genuine and modestly more de-risked with the Apple Card → JPM transition confirmed. However, at $932 and 2.17x tangible book, the stock still prices in permanent peak-cycle conditions. Trading revenue at records has never sustained >2 years. Fair value rises from $730 to $743 (+2%) reflecting consumer exit crystallization, but the stock remains 20% above fair value with 0.49:1 near-term R/R.
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