Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Valuation
Rating: Moderate Overpriced
12-Month Fair Value: $38 – $55 – $68
Confidence: LOW
Remarkable turnaround ($-541M FY23 to $1.88B FY25) but at $73 still 25% above FV mid $55. Iran war mixed: 24/7 crypto trading validated (Euronews) but risk-off crushes crypto prices (20% of rev). Beta 2.44 = -39% YTD. $1.5B buyback announced. DCF at 12.5% WACC = $30 floor. 47% margins are peak-cycle. Governance discount 10% (Bhatt 40% vote/2% economics). Downgraded from Slight to Moderate Overpriced. Accumulate only below $38.
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