Morgan Stanley (MS) Valuation
Rating: Slight Overpriced
12-Month Fair Value: $115 – $146 – $172
Confidence: MEDIUM
At $165.87, MS has pulled back from $182 improving the entry. Wealth management transformation intact (45%+ of revenue, $9.3T client assets). FRB capital modernization frees up CET1 (15.0% actual vs 11.8% requirement). Iran war mixed: hurts M&A/ECM timing but boosts trading/hedging. FOMC hawkish supports NII. P/B 2.58x vs normalized ~2.0x — still premium but less stretched. FV $146 using 19% sustainable ROTCE. Upgraded from Overpriced to Slight Overpriced on price decline.
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