NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) Valuation
Rating: Slight Overpriced
12-Month Fair Value: $71 – $83 – $95
Confidence: MEDIUM
World's largest wind/solar operator with 75 GW pipeline and regulated FPL cash cow, but AI data center power demand tailwind (2-4% load CAGR vs historical 0.5%) is already priced into 23x forward P/E. OBBBA accelerates IRA tax credit sunset, threatening 40% of NEER earnings. Modified Utility DCF yields $89 fair value; DDM ($80) signals rate sensitivity. Near-term R/R unfavorable (0.39:1) at $94 vs $88 base; long-term favorable (1.69:1) if AI power demand materializes and regulatory moat holds.
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