The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) Valuation
Rating: Slight Overpriced
12-Month Fair Value: $112 – $132 – $152
Confidence: MEDIUM
P&G's 69-year dividend streak is unimpeachable, but Q2 FY2026 showed flat organic sales, -1% volume, core gross margin down 50bps, and $400M after-tax tariff headwind. At 21x forward P/E on guided $6.83-$7.09 core EPS, the stock prices in a recovery that hasn't begun. Probability-weighted expected return is -1.6% near-term. Wait for $125-135 entry (15-18x P/E, 3%+ yield) where risk/reward becomes compelling.
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