Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) Valuation
Rating: Fairly Priced (High)
12-Month Fair Value: $64 – $76 – $88
Confidence: MEDIUM
Q1 2026 was the worst print of the Day-1 bank trio: EPS $1.60 thin beat, but revenue MISSED $21.45B vs $21.77B consensus, and provision for credit losses built +22% YoY to $1.14B from $932M. NIM 2.47, ROTCE 14.5%, efficiency stuck at 67% (vs. sub-60% target), CET1 10.3%, $4B Q1 buyback continuing. Stock -4.45% on the print — single biggest day-one reaction. Market read revenue miss + provision build as confirmation growth story is slowing AND credit cycle is turning. FV $82 -> $76 (-7.3%). Rating FAIRLY PRICED (HIGH) unchanged. Provision trajectory is the first concrete data point that could ladder into a Forecast 4 (HY OAS) break if echoed by BAC Thursday.
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