The Gold Paradox: Buy-Side Framework for Gold/BTC War Divergence

Category: Cross-Asset Macro · Date: 2026-03-12

Gold is down 1.97% on Day 12 of the largest US military engagement since 2003. Oil is up 9.57%. This is not an anomaly — it is a correctly-priced supply shock. Buy cheap gold vol now (GLD June calls) to capture the regime change at SPR depletion. Fade Bitcoin's divergence — it catches down to NQ when this gets worse. Monitor FX plumbing for the systemic trigger.

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