Day 12: The 400 Million Barrel Bet

Category: Geopolitical · Date: 2026-03-11

IEA deploys history's largest emergency oil release (400M barrels, 32 nations). Mathematical model: SPR covers 60-90 days at 5.5M bbl/day, exhausted by Day 73. Oil ROSE on the announcement — market sees through the headline. The Cliff Effect: $87-100 during SPR → $130-160 after exhaustion. E[V] Brent T+90: $114. France: 'If we can't reopen Hormuz, we will replace it with other oil.' IRGC: 'Not a litre.' Three ships hit. Russia and China benefit most. The market bets on a short war. The math says otherwise.

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