Day 18: The Beijing Equation

Category: Geopolitical · Date: 2026-03-17

Israel kills Larijani (top security official). Lebanon ground invasion (1M displaced). UAE Shah gas field ablaze, Fujairah port struck 3x. Baghdad embassy hit. Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly in Moscow. Trump-Xi summit delayed — China becomes the key variable. Bessent allows Iranian tankers through Hormuz + 30-day Russian oil waiver. First zero-transit day on Hormuz. Iran missile capacity down 92% but IRGC keeps fighting. Joe Kent resigns — first senior official to break. FOMC tomorrow. Nuclear breakout path rises to 15%. Gold $1,194 below E[V]. 43 sources across 12 countries.

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