Day 32: Gullibility Premium V

Category: Geopolitical · Date: 2026-03-31

Trump drops Hormuz requirement (WSJ), triggering SPY +2.80% peace rally — the 13th exit signal. But gold +3.63% during the rally signals institutional hedging. Axios counts 12 prior false signals. Iran denies all negotiations. 87th wave of attacks continues. Saudi intercepts 8 ballistic missiles. China-Pakistan call for 'peace talks ASAP.' Framework probability hits war-high 20% (S5+S6 = 28%). Revised 7-scenario E[V]: SPY -7.0%, Brent $127, Gold $5,380. Verdict: fade the rally, smaller size.

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