Days 39–42: GP VI — The Islamabad Illusion

Category: Geopolitical · Date: 2026-04-10

TACO #4 confirmed: Pakistan-mediated 2-week ceasefire announced 88 minutes before the “final” deadline. Oil −16.4% (biggest drop since 2020), VIX crushed to pre-war 19.5, SPY +2.31% — market pricing ~70% peace probability. But Lebanon is explicitly excluded (Netanyahu), Hormuz functionally still closed (4 transits/day vs. 100+), and Iran’s 10-point maximalist proposal has zero overlap with US/Israeli positions. Islamabad talks begin today with preconditions unmet. GP VI setup — punishment window April 10–13. Full scenario model, expected values, and options playbook.

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