Days 47–50: The Asymmetric Setup — A Mistakes Ledger and the Peace Trade
Category: Geopolitical · Date: 2026-04-14
Honest retrospective on 16 days of wrong directional calls (Mar 27 → Apr 13: SPY E[V] 4–11% below actual close every single report) + the asymmetric peace trade thesis. Oil −8% today on Islamabad II re-start chatter. Citi + BlackRock upgraded US equities citing 'easing war risks.' Wang Yi made 26 mediation calls Apr 13. Chinese tanker aborted Hormuz transit Apr 14. Iran central bank warned of 180% inflation collapse Apr 13. Full sector playbook: long JETS/CCL/XLY/QCOM/refiners (Apr 7 precedent: JETS +11%, CCL +11%); short RTX/LMT/XLE/XOM/CVX/USO/tankers (Apr 7: XLE −4.7%, USO −11.5%, CVX −2.5%). 7 pair trades sized market-neutral. Tiered deployment framework (25% now, 40% on framework headline, 35% on regime confirmation). Historical parallels: 1991 SPX +29% YoY, 2003 +17% in 7 weeks, 2025 Iran 12-Day War new ATH in 3 days. 5 pathways to peace analyzed (China-mediated partial framework highest prob 25–35% in 30d). War-end (S4+S6) probability: 16–20% by Apr 30, 24–30% by May 31, 31–36% by Jul 31. 4 new structured forecasts F5–F8. Iranian leadership intelligence update (Ali Khamenei killed Day 1; Mojtaba figurehead; Vahidi's IRGC military council runs state). v1.0 PENDING Codex GPT-5.4 review (Apr 15).
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