Day 5: Markets Call the Bluff, Hormuz Gambit Takes Shape
Category: Geopolitical · Date: 2026-03-04
Oil falling despite Hormuz closed. VIX collapsed 25 to 22. BTC +9.6%. Trump tanker insurance gambit. Iran diplomatic crack. Lebanon bans Hezbollah military. Revised path probabilities: Paths 1+2 = 58%. Game theory update. Defense = highest conviction trade.
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