Bitcoin's First Credit Cycle: Private Credit Collapse, Gold's Playbook, and Crypto Contagion

Category: Cross-Asset · Date: 2026-03-22

Private credit ($3.5T) has reached Minsky Stage 3 with live stress signals (Blue Owl gated, Blackstone BCRED 7.9% redemptions, 40% borrowers negative FCF). Bitcoin has never been tested by a macro credit cycle. Gold's 8-event playbook maps the path. 4-scenario PM framework with plumbing dashboard. 3 rounds of multi-agent research + 4 Codex GPT-5.4 review iterations. Highest-conviction call: BTC trades as liquidation instrument first, anti-bank asset second — conditionally. Gold prob-weighted +37% vs BTC +3.4%.

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